Bayesian Funk

Good ol’ Bayes
Plugging in the numbers that we know
Finishing the calculation
Note again that P(-) was broken down into two components
Table of probabilities for each test.
Note that as P(+) + P(-) = 1, then P(-) = 1 — P(-)
As is clear, a higher prior leads to a higher probability of having the virus when given conflicting test results.




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